Every year I try to come up with a big takeaway for what I learned. In 2022, it was that people hate inflation. In 2023, it was that people can’t predict recessions. But this year what I learned wasn’t an investment lesson. In 2024, I learned not to bet against biology.
Two prominent stories from 2024 illustrate this. First, the unfortunate decline of President Biden’s mental capacity. We all saw little things over the years. He’d lose his train of thought or get confused on stage. At first, it was understandable. We all lose our train of thought sometimes and we don’t have cameras watching us every time we do.
But after his debate against former President Trump, the vibe changed. There was no more denying how bad it was. He wasn’t the same Biden many of us once knew.
This isn’t a political point, but an unfortunate reality that I wouldn’t wish on anyone. I have a grandfather who is struggling with memory loss and it saddens me to see him and my family go through it. Unfortunately, Mother Nature isn’t kind in the end.
The second story that comes to mind was the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight. Tyson, who is 58 and considered one of the greatest boxers of all time, took on Paul, a 28 year-old YouTuber turned professional boxer. Before the fight there was a lot of speculation about who would win. Although Paul was the favorite in the betting markets, a lot of people thought that Tyson might pull it off.
Unfortunately, the betting markets were right. Though Tyson fought well in the first two rounds (which were only 2 minutes in length), by round three he started slowing down. And that’s all she wrote.
Tyson lost by decision after eight rounds and looked exhausted by the end. It was incredibly impressive for his age, but it clearly wasn’t the Tyson we all remember. One of the greatest boxers in history was no match for Father Time.
I don’t tell these stories to poke fun at either Biden or Tyson who are both incredibly accomplished in their respective fields. I tell them as a reminder of the physical and mental decline we will all endure in the coming decades. I say this as someone who recently turned 35 and has already started having physical ailments that I didn’t have before.
For example, earlier this year I tore my hamstring/adductor while wake surfing with some friends. I had gone wake surfing in 2021 and 2022 without issue. But two years without practicing and I had forgotten what little technique I had. On my third attempt to try and get up, I felt some strain in my leg and I should’ve called it quits. But I didn’t. I gave it one more go and managed to stand up for a second before collapsing in pain into the water.
In the months after the incident, I didn’t do any physical therapy and believed that my body would heal on its own. And, over time, it seemed like I was right. My pain disappeared and I started to run again without issue. Problem solved…or so I thought.
However, after traveling for a month and experiencing the worst jet lag of my life upon my return, I decided to do a leg workout to get back into the swing of things. The workout was more difficult than normal, but I made it through.
Unfortunately, three days later my jet lag hadn’t improved and my legs were still sore from the workout. So when I bent over to grab something, I felt that familiar pain shoot up my leg. I had re-pulled my hamstring/adductor.
My immediate reaction was disbelief. How could this happen? I wasn’t deadlifting anything. I wasn’t doing an intense exercise.
No. A common, everyday movement messed me up. A few days later I started seeing a physical therapist and am now on the road to recovery. However, it will be some time before I’m 100% again.
I tell this story because as much as I have focused on health since age 27, it wasn’t enough. Despite hitting the gym and running a few times a week, I drank too much, didn’t have the best diet, and my exercise routine wasn’t structured. While what I did was far better than nothing, my failure to take my health seriously has started to catch up with me. Things are breaking sooner than I would’ve expected them to.
So, in 2025 I’m going to be much more health focused. Because I’m already seeing the declines now. And, if I don’t want those declines to accelerate further, I need to fight against them while I still can.
As Peter Attia summarized in this article, “Loss of both muscle mass and muscle strength accelerates as we age, though the rate of muscle strength loss is typically far greater than the rate of muscle mass loss.”
You can see this acceleration in Table 1, showing muscle mass and muscle strength changes in men by decade from their 40s onward:
As you can see, physical decline is inevitable. But far too many people go harder in their career in their 30s and 40s at the expense of their health. Then a decade or two later they realize an unfortunate truth—they have more money than they ever needed and less health than they ever wanted.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not telling you to ignore your career next year. I have big plans for my career in 2025 and beyond. I assume you do as well. However, I also know that I need to prioritize my health like never before.
Because one of the biggest lessons I’ve learned about personal finance is that money isn’t worth as much when you don’t have your health. Those dollars in your account can’t buy the same things at 60 as they could at 30…unless you focus on your health.
Thankfully, if you’re in your 30s or 40s, you have plenty of time to accomplish this. Technically, there is always time to work on your health. But, it’s far better to start sooner rather than later.
So, if I have one piece of advice for you in 2025 it’s this—don’t bet against biology.
Happy New Year and thank you for reading!
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This is post 431. Any code I have related to this post can be found here with the same numbering: https://github.com/nmaggiulli/of-dollars-and-data
