Nick Maggiulli

Even God Couldn’t Beat Dollar-Cost Averaging

The Problem with Buying the Dip Photo: Fabrizio Verrecchia on Unsplash This is the last article you will ever need to read on market timing.  It’s a bold claim, but I’m not messing around.  So strap in, because the training wheels are off on this one.  To start, let’s play a game: Imagine you are dropped somewhere in…

One Big Thing

On the Power of Heuristics and Reducing Complexity Photo: Pixabay Before American Pharoah won the Triple Crown in 2015, no one expected much from the horse.  Jeff Seder felt differently.  Seder had worked as an analyst at Citigroup before quitting and following his passion to predict the outcome of horse races.  But, Seder was different…

Fickle Fortune

On the Ebb and Flow of Luck Photo: Flickr Few people have done more to change the world and have gotten rewarded less for their efforts than Edwin Drake.  On August 27, 1859, Drake became the first person in history to successfully drill for oil.  Despite his early start, within a few years of his…

Beware the Gatekeeper

On the Most Powerful Cognitive Bias in the World Photo: Pixabay It was the morning of Halloween when I got her text.  “What are you doing tonight?”  It was Michelle (not her real name), a woman I had been dating off and on for a few months in NYC.  “Nothing. What’s up?”  I responded.  She…

The Price of Greed

How to Think About Wanting More Photo: Pixabay The man who once made cotton the most traded commodity on Earth didn’t make any money off of it.  Eli Whitney, the creator of the cotton gin, got a little too greedy.  After building a device that could extract cotton while leaving behind the seeds, Whitney went into…

The Rise After the Fall

Post-Traumatic Growth in Life and Markets Photo: Pixabay Janine Shepard was on a training bike ride in the Blue Mountains 100km northwest of Sydney, Australia when her life changed forever.  She was riding with her fellow cross-country ski teammates in preparation for the 1988 winter Olympics when a speeding utility truck hit her off her…

Kind or Hostile

The Most Important Decision You Can Make Every Day Photo: Pixabay I was recently listening to the 100th episode of the Michael Kitces podcast with Joe Duran to learn about how Duran used data analytics to help build and scale a $24 billion wealth management firm.  However, it wasn’t the machine learning or the data-driven decision…

Expectation vs. Reality

The Problem Of Planning and What To Do About It Photo: Pixabay It was December 5, 1914 and Sir Ernest Henry Shackleton set out to be the first person to travel by land across Antarctica.  Or, at least, that was the plan.  Shackleton and his 27 man crew figured they could brave the Wedell Sea and…

My Favorite Investment Writing of 2018

Plus My Favorite Books I Read This Year Photo: Pixabay I know the year isn’t over yet, but last year I wrote about my favorite investment writing of 2017 and decided to continue this tradition on Of Dollars And Data.  As I mentioned previously, I do not consider other financial bloggers as competition, but as…

When Things Stop Working

On The Persistence of Stock Market Anomalies Photo: Pixabay When the circumstances are right, one of the best evolutionary strategies as an animal is to get larger.  Larger animals have longer lifespans and are harder to kill than smaller animals.  However, bigger also means more calories and typically fewer offspring, leading to slower population recovery…