The main difference between natural and financial systems is that natural systems tend to have immutable laws, while financial systems only have tendencies.
Market History
How to Invest a Lump Sum
When investing a lump sum of money, it is better to do it all at once than to dollar cost average into the market. Here’s why.
Even God Couldn’t Beat Dollar-Cost Averaging
A market timing strategy rarely outperforms dollar cost averaging even when that strategy knows exactly when to buy.
When Things Stop Working
On the persistence of stock market anomalies.
Why The Best Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns is Useless
On the importance of supply and demand and how it can help predict future stock returns.
What Will Always Be True
On order within the universe and what it means for investors.
The Right Place, The Right Time
On broad trends and prioritizing process over outcome.
The Privilege of Knowledge
Why we shouldn’t take market history for granted.
In the Land of the Lost
On the ever-changing landscape of markets.
Beyond All Expectations
When old patterns break and how to think about financial data.
Falling Fast and Rising Slow
On the nature of equity price declines and recoveries.
Risk and Reward in a New Era
How investing has changed over the century and why future returns are likely to be lower.
6 Months Are Responsible For All of the Gains in the U.S. Stock Market Since 2000
On the skew in monthly stock returns.